March 2026. For millions of Nigerians, life under President Bola Tinubu's administration has devolved into a relentless struggle for survival. Recent data paint a stark picture: an overwhelming 93% of citizens express dissatisfaction with the current state of affairs, citing escalating poverty and worsening living conditions. This sentiment is reinforced by distressing figures, with 82% reporting insufficient food and 95% having gone without a cash income at some point in the past year alone.
The Crushing Weight of Fuel Subsidy Removal and Soaring Costs
The economic reforms initiated by President Tinubu, particularly the removal of the fuel subsidy in May 2023, have been a watershed moment, fundamentally reshaping the financial landscape for ordinary Nigerians. This policy, described by some as necessary to address fiscal challenges, triggered an immediate and dramatic surge in living expenses. By March 2026, petrol prices have reached as high as N1,400 per litre in many parts of the country, with black market rates soaring even higher to N1,800 in some South-South regions, largely due to global oil price increases and geopolitical tensions. The ripple effect is felt deeply in every household, as transport fares have doubled, and the cost of basic commodities continues its upward trajectory.
'Although Nigeria's headline inflation eased slightly to 15.06 per cent year-on-year in February 2026, the marginal decline does not reflect the harsh reality of the country's rising cost of living,'
— Muda Yusuf, CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE)
Inflation's Relentless March and the Hunger Crisis
While headline inflation showed a marginal decrease to 15.06% in February 2026, marking the 11th consecutive month of decline and the lowest since November 2020, this figure offers little comfort on the ground. The more pressing concern is the relentless climb of food inflation, which surged to 12.12% in February 2026 from 8.89% in January. This unwelcome spike, largely attributed to Ramadan-related stockpiling and soaring input costs for farmers, has reversed a brief period of single-digit food inflation, pushing the cost of a healthy meal to an estimated N1,611 by July 2025, a threefold increase from mid-2023. The average annual food inflation rate for the 12 months ending February 2026 stands at 19.08%.
Poverty Rates: A Widening Gap
Post-Subsidy
2026 Projection
With Social Aid
Poverty Headcount Ratio in Nigeria (approximate figures)
Reports indicate that the national poverty rate surged from approximately 49.8% before the fuel subsidy removal to around 63% afterward. While government interventions like cash transfers slightly moderated this to about 56.2%, the relief remains limited due to implementation delays and small-scale assistance. The World Bank projects the poverty rate to peak at 62% in 2026, affecting an estimated 141 million people.
Businesses Buckle, Households Adapt to Scarcity
The ramifications extend beyond individual households to the broader business environment. Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) are grappling with severe operational challenges, battling high energy, logistics, and raw material costs, coupled with weakened consumer demand. Many small businesses are closing their doors, unable to sustain operations. On the home front, families are resorting to desperate coping strategies: reducing meal frequency, trekking long distances to save on transport fares, and limiting electricity usage. Vulnerable groups, including children, women, and the elderly, bear a disproportionate burden, often borrowing to meet basic needs.
Despite some positive macroeconomic indicators cited by the government, such as a stabilizing naira and increased government revenue, the lived reality for most Nigerians in March 2026 remains one of profound economic distress, where the daily struggle to survive overshadows any statistical improvements.
